Starting June 21, Turkey will suspend wheat imports until at least October 15 to shield its farmers from price fluctuations, secure domestic raw materials, and create a favorable market for local producers, the agriculture ministry announced.
This announcement led to a sharp drop in U.S. and European wheat futures, both falling around 2%, as traders feared that Russian exporters would be significantly impacted. The wheat initially destined for Turkey might have to be sold cheaply in other markets.
Turkey, the world’s fifth-largest wheat importer, primarily sources its wheat from Russia.
The agriculture ministry stated that the halt in wheat imports aligns with foreign trade measures recommended by the Trade Ministry to protect producers. The ministry also mentioned that additional measures would be implemented.
The measures aim to “prevent our producers from being affected by price decreases due to supply density during the harvest period, to meet the raw material supply required for our exports from domestic production, and to ensure market stability in favor of producers,” according to the ministry’s statement.
European grain traders expressed concerns that the import ban would coincide with the entry of Russia’s new harvest into world markets this summer.
“Russia is likely to be the main loser on this,” said a German grain trader. “Russia supplies somewhere between 60-75% of Turkey’s wheat imports, and this ban looks like it will come into force just as Russia’s new crop needs to be marketed.”
“If Russian wheat cannot be sold in Turkey, it will have to be offered elsewhere at low prices, potentially benefiting other importers in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.”
However, traders noted that this could also reduce demand for European and U.S. wheat.
On Thursday, the ministry announced that the Turkish grain board (TMO) had set 2024 crop grain purchase prices for durum wheat, milling wheat, and barley.
The import halt might extend beyond October 15 depending on “market conditions on that date,” the ministry added.
Additionally, the Turkish ministry stated that exports of flour made from domestically-produced wheat, which had been banned since September 2018, would now be allowed. Barley, milling, and durum wheat exports can also proceed using a TMO export license in a “controlled” manner.
According to the International Grains Council, Turkey is expected to import 12 million metric tons of grain in the 2024/25 season, including 8.5 million tons of wheat.
