Ukraine’s winter grain crops are expected to ripen at least two weeks earlier than usual due to abnormally high temperatures in most regions during late May and early June, the agriculture ministry announced on Friday.
Winter wheat, which constitutes about 95% of Ukraine’s wheat production, along with large areas of winter barley, will see an earlier harvest. “The ripening of winter wheat this year will start in mid-June and last until early July, which is 2 to 2.5 weeks earlier than the average dates over many years,” the ministry reported.
Despite these changes, the ministry noted that meteorological conditions for the growth and development of winter and spring grain crops at the end of May and early June were “generally satisfactory.”
However, weather forecasters and agricultural scientists in Ukraine have indicated that severe frosts in the first half of May, followed by a drought in most regions, created unfavorable conditions for all crops, potentially affecting the harvest. Ukraine experienced several waves of frost between May 1 and May 16.
On Friday, Russia declared a federal emergency in 10 regions due to crop damage from May frosts. Both Russia and Ukraine are major grain producers in the Black Sea region.
Despite the adverse weather in May, Ukraine’s agriculture ministry has maintained its grain harvest forecast for 2024 at 52.4 million metric tons. According to this forecast, Ukraine could harvest 19 million tons of wheat this year, down from 22.5 million tons in 2023. The Ukrainian Grain Traders Union (UGA) similarly predicts a drop in wheat output to 19.1 million tons from 22 million in 2023.
Ukraine, a significant global grain and oilseed producer and exporter, has seen its harvests decline since the Russian invasion in February 2022. The agriculture ministry stated that Ukraine lost about 30% of its agricultural sector’s total potential, with nearly 20% of its agricultural land occupied.
