Europe is expected to see a reduced wheat harvest this summer due to rain disruptions in parts of France, Germany, and Britain. However, improved conditions in other areas may help mitigate crop losses in this key exporting region.
Autumn planting was hindered by rain, and a wet spring in the west has set Europe on track for its smallest wheat crop since 2020.
“This year is shaping up to be disappointing for wheat,” commented Vincent Braak, an analyst at Strategie Grains.
In France, a warm, sunny spell this week could benefit crops after the wettest spring in 16 years, though rain is forecasted to return next week.
French wheat conditions are currently the worst since 2020. Analysts suggest that favorable weather from now on is necessary for the output to reach 30 million tons, compared to 35 million tons last year.
Maxence Devillers of Argus noted that this year’s French crop might see better yields in shallow soils, which are more prone to heat and drought, and poorer yields in deeper soils that are waterlogged this year.
In Britain, rain-related area reductions are likely to lower wheat production, though a warm May has supported crop growth.
According to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), 55% of winter wheat was in good or excellent condition by the end of May, up from 34% in late March, though still below 85% from a year ago.
The AHDB report highlighted that May’s record warmth accelerated crop growth: “Agronomists have been amazed by the canopy expansion since conditions improved. Mother Nature has caught up, but it’s unclear if yields will match the leafy growth.”
Germany also expects a decline in wheat production due to reduced planting, but rain damage is likely to be limited to the south.
“Heavy rains hit France, Britain, and Germany this spring, but Germany seems to have fared better due to its light soils that drain well, preventing waterlogging,” said a German analyst.
Flooding in southern Germany is not expected to significantly impact cropland. The main concern is farmers’ difficulty accessing waterlogged fields, potentially affecting crop quality, analysts said.
In Poland, crop conditions are satisfactory overall, but frosts and a lack of rain may reduce yields, said Wojtek Sabaranski of Sparks Polska.
“Generally, wheat conditions in most regions are decent, so we expect a crop of about 12.8 million tons, down 3% from 2023,” Sabaranski added.
