Challenges in Predicting the Brazilian Soybean Crop

post from 31 January 2024

In this interview, Adriano Lo Turco, a senior market analyst from Agroсonsult, speaks about the current state of the Brazilian soybean crop. The discussion covers the significant variation in soybean harvest estimates, the impact of adverse weather conditions on different regions, challenges faced during the crop's early stages, and the potential for improvements in the coming weeks. Adriano provides insights into acreage, replanting efforts, and the slow pace of soybean sales due to lower prices. Additionally, he discusses expectations for soybean exports, export directions, and the role of China as the primary importer.

READ summary

Summary of the Interview with Adriano Lo Turco:

Introduction: Maryna Marynych interviews Adriano Lo Turco, a senior market analyst from Agroconsult, to discuss changes in the Brazilian soybean crop over the past months.

Soybean Harvest Estimates: There’s a significant difference in estimates for the Brazilian soybean harvest, ranging from 135 to 157 million tons. Adriano attributes this variation to adverse weather conditions, particularly in MatoGrosso and Central West Brazil.

Current Estimate: Adriano’s current estimate for the soybean crop in Brazil is 153.8 million tons. While the early stage had poor yields, conditions are improving, offering hope for the coming weeks.

Weather Conditions: Weather conditions in October and November were dry and extremely hot, negatively impacting the early-planted beans. Conditions improved from mid-December to early January, but the variation in planting times led to a wide range of yields.

Comparison with Previous Years: Adriano finds it challenging to compare this year’s crop with previous years due to unprecedented severe weather conditions, especially in Mato Grosso.

Regional Crop Overview: Mato Grosso faced significant problems, with over a million hectares requiring replanting. Other regions like Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul had a good start, but some issues arose later. The Mapito region, planted later, is still under observation.

Acreage and Replanting: Brazil has approximately 45.7 million hectares of soybean acreage, with nearly 3 million hectares (6.5%) requiring replanting, particularly in Mato Grosso.

New Crop Sales and Prices: Around 30% of the crop is already sold, but prices are lower compared to the past five years, with farmers hoping for a price rebound before selling more.

Soybean Exports Estimate: Adriano expects soybean exports not to surpass the record of the previous year, projecting around 95 million tons for 2024.

Export Directions: Southern ports of Brazil account for 65% of exports, with Santos as a significant port. Northern arch, representing 35%, may experience some changes due to losses in the Northern states.

Main Importers: China remains the primary importer of Brazilian soybeans, responsible for nearly 70% of exports last year.

Closing Remarks: Adriano hopes for better news in the future, acknowledging the challenging year for crop estimates and market analysts in Brazil.