On Friday, Russia announced a federal emergency in 10 regions due to significant crop damage caused by May frosts. This measure aims to provide farmers with additional funds, although officials assured that it would not disrupt export commitments.
The declaration was anticipated after Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut indicated earlier in the week that such a step was likely, facilitating insurance claims for farmers.
Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin emphasized on Friday that the adverse weather’s impact on farm output would be minimized, and Russia would meet all its export commitments, as reported by state news agency TASS. “As of today, we have already replanted almost 800,000 hectares,” Razin stated. “All our obligations for both domestic consumption and external exports will definitely be fulfilled.”
Despite these assurances, the severe May frosts in Russia’s key agricultural regions have led consultancies IKAR and Sovecon to lower their wheat crop forecasts for this year.
IKAR has revised its forecast down to 81.5 million metric tons, a 12% reduction since mid-March. Last year’s harvest was approximately 93 million tons. Before the emergency declaration, IKAR head Dmitry Rylko mentioned that it was crucial to expedite the compensation process for farmers and secure additional funds for them.
Andrey Sizov of Sovecon noted that the deteriorating crop prospects, coupled with rising domestic prices, have increased the risk of additional restrictions on grain exports. “I don’t think the Ministry of Agriculture itself wants such restrictions,” Sizov added. Russia remains the world’s largest wheat exporter.
This week, Sovecon also reduced its wheat crop forecast to 80.7 million metric tons, down from a March projection of 94 million metric tons.
